monetary policy on fire: bank of japan sets the pace for global markets

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the outbreak point of this "monetary policy war" lies in the interest rate decision released by the bank of japan on september 20. kazuo ueda's latest statement will undoubtedly bring new changes to the global market. his tone is full of caution and determination, suggesting that the bank of japan's monetary policy will continue to tighten. the market generally expects that the bank of japan will keep the overnight call rate unchanged at 0.25%, but may raise interest rates again at the december meeting.

the recent statements by bank of japan officials and the current market's general expectation are that the bank of japan will continue to raise interest rates. the conflict between economists' analysis and market expectations is bringing new momentum to the global market and making the rhythm of this monetary policy "war" clearer.

judging from the fed's actions, the duration of its substantial interest rate cut cycle may bring greater opportunities to the chinese market, especially the rmb market. as one of the important factors affecting the global economy, the policy decisions of the bank of japan will directly affect the global market. if the bank of japan makes a positive statement after the interest rate decision on september 20, suggesting that the economy is on the right track, then this will be a key signal to promote a new round of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts.

however, the bank of japan's monetary policy decisions are not completely independent of the external environment. market expectations for a reserve requirement cut are increasingly concentrated, including zheshang securities, guojin securities, caixin securities and other institutions have issued views that the people's bank of china may cut the reserve requirement in the near future, which will be the best choice for weak economic and financial indicators.

the "prudent" adjustment of monetary policy will also find a new balance point in market expectations. as the fed's interest rate cut cycle continues, the bank of japan's monetary policy decisions will also be affected, which will be a new starting point for the global market economy.