existing mortgage interest rates cut: "tug-of-war" between banks and residents

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in this tug-of-war, the burden on residents is being reduced, the trend of early loan repayment has eased, and banks are facing operating pressure and need to balance interest rate spreads and costs. the adjustment of existing mortgage interest rates has become a key node. if the policy of lowering the interest rate of existing mortgages is finally implemented, it will bring about a series of changes, which is closely related to the contradiction between the decline in the yield on the asset side of residents and the increase in the cost on the liability side.

historical review: in 2008, the central bank lowered the lower limit of personal housing loan interest rates. in order to attract existing mortgage customers, major banks launched preferential interest rate plans, marking the birth of a precedent for adjusting existing mortgage interest rates. in 2023, the central bank and the state financial supervision and administration bureau issued the "notice on reducing the interest rates of existing first home loans", adjusting the interest rates of two types of housing loans, and achieved remarkable results.

possible impact: the potential impact of the reduction in the interest rate of existing mortgage loans is worthy of attention. on the one hand, it can reduce the burden of housing consumption of residents and alleviate the problem of early repayment of loans; on the other hand, banks are facing operating pressure, and deposit interest rates need to be adjusted accordingly, and it may drive the broad-spectrum interest rate center to continue to "step down".

risk factors: there are also risks in factors such as monetary policy expectations, the speed of economic recovery, and liquidity conditions. if monetary policy is not as expected, economic recovery is not as expected, or even liquidity tightens more than expected, the impact of the adjustment of existing mortgage interest rates will be more complicated.

under the current economic situation, the adjustment of the interest rate of existing mortgage loans has become an important decision-making link. it will not only affect the fate of residents and banks, but also affect the development direction of the entire financial system.