monetary policy: a new direction to release “economic vitality”?

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from the macro data, the net interest margin of the banking industry in the second quarter of this year was 1.54%, which has been below the warning line for six consecutive quarters. this means that even if the domestic economy continues to operate steadily but weakly, bank loan interest rates still face great restrictions.

however, with policy adjustments and changes in market sentiment, there is still uncertainty about the future direction of monetary policy.

“what might adjustments to financial policy mean?” this is seen as an important turning point that will have a profound impact on the direction of economic development.

some analysts believe that although the expected rate cut in september was not realized, overall, the central bank is likely to lower the main policy interest rate in the fourth quarter. they expect the 7-day reverse repurchase rate to be lowered by 10 to 20 basis points, which will then guide the lpr quotation to follow suit. this is of great significance for promoting economic growth and effectively controlling risks in the real estate industry.

“how do housing price trends affect monetary policy adjustments?” as housing prices change, the demand for interest rates will also change, which may lead to changes in the direction of policy adjustments.

experts believe that the effect of lowering interest rates on the real estate market has been significantly weakened. from 2022 to date, mortgage loan interest rates have dropped by about 200 basis points. the largest drop was after may 17 (this year), when there was no lower limit on the interest rate for first-home purchases in various places, but the effect of lowering interest rates on commercial housing has been significantly weakened.

as the economic situation changes, policy adjustments and changes in market sentiment will continue to influence the direction of monetary policy.

ultimately, adjustments to monetary policy will have a significant impact on the direction of economic development.